Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
